[Mac-BR] Cedo para dizer
Evandro Vieira Ouriques
evandro.vieira.ouriques em gmail.com
Quarta Janeiro 30 09:28:37 PST 2013
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more details
Information technology Has Apple peaked?The world’s most valuable firm may
be past its prime Jan 26th 2013 | SAN FRANCISCO |From the print
edition<http://www.economist.com/printedition/2013-01-26>
-
-
TECH blogs are abuzz. Pundits are busy pumping out predictions. The
company that makes the new device that is attracting so much attention is
teasing reporters by being coy about its innovative features. Apple’s
product launches are always like this. But this time the fuss is not about
an Apple product: it is about Samsung’s latest Galaxy smartphone, which is
likely to be launched in March.
Stiffer competition in smartphones and tablets from the likes of Samsung
has spooked investors in Apple. They got another fright on January 23rd
when the firm revealed that its latest quarterly profit of $13 billion was
flat because of higher manufacturing costs. That triggered a rout in
after-hours trading: at one point some $57 billion was wiped off Apple’s
market capitalisation, roughly the equivalent of the entire value of Ford,
a carmaker.
In this section
- Has Apple peaked?
- Watch this
space<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570759-next-tech-battleground-may-be-your-wrist-watch-space>
- The insured and the
unsure<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570756-will-obamacare-spur-firms-drop-workers-health-cover-insured-and-unsure>
- Profit with
Purpose<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570763-how-profit-firm-fosters-protest-profit-purpose>
- Read this and win
million$!!!<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570754-read-and-win-million>
- New heads for a new
cycle<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570745-why-top-posts-are-changing-hands-new-heads-new-cycle>
- The rewards of
royalty<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570737-despite-what-you-might-hear-some-foreign-firms-india-are-prospering-rewards-royalty>
- Sexy signage<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570758-billboards-are-not-dull-they-look-sexy-signage>
- Davos Man and his
defects<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570684-global-leadership-industry-needs-re-engineering-davos-man-and-his-defects>
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Apple’s shares have been mauled by bears many times before (see chart 1),
but they have always recovered. The big question on many investors’ minds
is whether the firm can rebound again. Two things have whetted the bears’
appetites.
First, Steve Jobs, Apple’s founder and creative genius, is dead. The
iPhones and iPads he sired still generate gargantuan profits. But his
successor, Tim Cook, has yet to prove himself capable of bringing new
breakthrough products to market. Second, Apple’s fantastic profit
margins—38.6% on sales of $55 billion—attract competitors like sweetshops
attract six-year-olds.
The company’s fans pooh-pooh the idea that Apple has peaked. The firm’s
price-earnings ratio—11.6 at close of business on January 23rd—is not much
different from Microsoft’s (see chart 2). That makes Apple’s shares look
relatively sexy. Unlike Microsoft, which depends heavily on the ailing
personal-computer business, Apple concentrates on sectors that are growing
fast, such as smartphones and tablets. Only one of 60 analysts tracked by
Bloomberg had a “sell” recommendation on Apple before this week’s
stockmarket fallout.
A drizzle of negative news had already dampened investors’ ardour before
this week’s earnings announcement. Apple bungled the introduction of its
new mapping app, and there were rumours of cuts in component orders for the
iPhone 5. But iBulls still expect sunshine this year: news of new gizmos
that Apple has created and new markets it is set to disrupt.
One of those gadgets is likely to be a much cheaper iPhone aimed at
emerging markets. In China, where some men have reportedly been dumped for
failing to buy their girlfriends iPhone 5s, Apple sold 2m of its
top-of-the-range devices over its launch weekend last month. However, most
Chinese shoppers can’t afford the things. Barclays, an investment bank,
reckons Apple could produce an iPhone for less than $150 to broaden its
appeal.
The firm has played down reports of a cheaper iPhone, but Apple-watchers
expect an announcement this year. Slimmer profit margins in China and India
may be worth it to woo millions of new buyers. Apple is said to be close to
a distribution agreement with China Mobile, a carrier with a hefty 700m
subscribers. News of a deal may boost Apple’s shares.
Yet the best way for the company to prove it is not past its prime would be
for it to disrupt another big market. Since Jobs’s death in 2011 Apple has
concentrated on sprucing up its existing products. Now investors want to
see it conjure up entirely new ones. All eyes are on television (though
Apple is also exploring the potential of other markets, such as wearable
computing: see article<http://www.economist.com/news/business/21570759-next-tech-battleground-may-be-your-wrist-watch-space>).
Mr Cook says television is an area of “intense interest”. He told
interviewers that when he switches on the TV in his living room, he feels
like he has “gone backwards in time by 20 or 30 years.” This fuels
expectations that Apple will launch an iTV later this year.
Sceptics point out that plenty of elegant, wafer-thin screens are already
on sale. Moreover, Apple’s existing set-top box, which lets users play
content from iTunes, Netflix and other services on their TVs, has not been
a stunning success. But this misses the—so to speak—bigger picture. The
iTV, which may be controlled via gestures and voice commands as well as via
iPads and iPhones, could be a digital hub for the home. It would let people
check whether their washing machine has finished its cycle while they
gossip on Facebook and watch their favourite soap. Peter Misek of
Jefferies, an investment bank, says sales of it should also boost purchases
of iPads and other Apple gear, as more people get sucked into the firm’s
“ecosystem” of linked devices and software.
But the iTV is no surefire blockbuster. For one thing, persuading cable and
broadcast outfits to make programming available over the internet on demand
will be tricky. They have already seen how such a model crushed music
companies. For another, iTVs are likely to be pretty expensive, limiting
their mass-market appeal.
Apple will also, as usual, face stiff competition from Samsung. The South
Korean firm is one of several that already sell smart TVs. Indeed, Samsung
seems to be churning out more and more groundbreaking devices while Apple
has produced only incremental innovations of late. Apple’s court battles
with Samsung over smartphone patents have reinforced the impression that it
is on the defensive.
However, Horace Dediu of Asymco, a research firm, says it would be a
mistake to think Apple is resting on its laurels. He notes that its capital
expenditure has soared in recent quarters, reaching levels typically seen
at firms with huge manufacturing operations, such as Intel (see chart 3).
Some of this money is going into data centres to support cloud services
like iTunes. But Mr Dediu reckons much of it is being spent on dedicated
production equipment at suppliers. This could give Apple an edge in
producing new gadgets.
Yet even if it produces a cheaper iPhone, pushes deep into China and wows
the world with a smart TV, its shares will not reconquer last year’s peak.
Competition is now tougher in its core markets. Rivals will not let it
disrupt new ones so easily. Apple may dip into its $137 billion cash lake
to boost its share price by paying fatter dividends or buying back more
stock. That would delight some investors, but others would see it as a
tacit admission that the firm’s great innovation engine has stalled. Apple
won’t crumble, but it has peaked.
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